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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 10 at the 75

Seattle Seahawks 14 – Arizona Cardinals 13

What Actually Happened

(:57) 4-M.Dickson punts 42 yards to ARI 33, Center-69-T.Ott. 12-P.Cooper to ARI 36 for 3 yards (35-M.Alexander).

The Three Options

GO -1.81 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.31 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 75, worth -3.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -0.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 32, worth -0.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model