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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 58

Seattle Seahawks 21 – Arizona Cardinals 21

What Actually Happened

(12:35) 4-M.Dickson punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-69-T.Ott, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.74 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.01 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 58, worth -2.76 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.41 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 18, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.15 EP