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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 5 at the 75

Seattle Seahawks 21 – Arizona Cardinals 13

What Actually Happened

(:21) 4-M.Dickson punt is BLOCKED by 94-C.Malveaux, Center-69-T.Ott, RECOVERED by ARI-92-D.Gardeck at SEA 0. TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO -1.40 EP
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.36 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 75, worth -4.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 32, worth -1.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model