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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 4 at the 69

Seattle Seahawks 14 – Arizona Cardinals 13

What Actually Happened

(13:54) 4-M.Dickson punts 44 yards to ARI 25, Center-69-T.Ott. 12-P.Cooper to ARI 19 for -6 yards (35-M.Alexander).

The Three Options

GO -0.81 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.94 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 69, worth -3.95 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.03 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 27, worth -1.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model