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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 1 at the 66

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(13:34) 2-A.Lee punts 47 yards to SEA 19, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

The Three Options

GO -0.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 66, worth -4.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.45 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 24, worth -1.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.15 EP