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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 2 at the 73

Arizona Cardinals 13 – Seattle Seahawks 14

What Actually Happened

(11:50) 2-A.Lee punts 50 yards to SEA 23, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

The Three Options

GO -1.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.25 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 73, worth -4.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.57 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 31, worth -1.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP