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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 16 at the 62

Arizona Cardinals 13 – Seattle Seahawks 21

What Actually Happened

(1:54) 2-A.Lee punts 62 yards to end zone, Center-46-A.Brewer, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.83 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.68 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 62, worth -3.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 21, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model