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Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
@
SEA Home

Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll
Sunday 2018-12-23 · 20:20 CenturyLink Field, Seattle US 🌧 Rain Spread -1.0 O/U 54.0

Win Probability

KC
57.5%
SEA
42.5%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • KC offense: +0.244 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • SEA offense: +0.146 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • SEA defense: +0.087 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • QB edge to KC: Russell Wilson (SEA) +0.204 vs Patrick Mahomes (KC) +0.325 EPA/dropback
  • KC on 3 more days rest than SEA

Predicted Final Score

KC 28
–
SEA 26
Projected margin: KC by 2 Projected total: 54

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

KC

Sammy Watkins WR Out Heel
Spencer Ware RB Doubtful Hamstring
Kendall Fuller CB Questionable Thumb

SEA

Tedric Thompson S Out Chest
D.J. Fluker G Questionable Hamstring
Germain Ifedi T Questionable Groin
Bradley McDougald S Questionable Knee
Tyler Ott LS Questionable Illness
Jarran Reed DT Questionable Groin
Shaquill Griffin CB Questionable Hip
Rashaad Penny RB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

KC 31
–
SEA 38

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 15 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:01 TD SEA (9:01) (Shotgun) 32-C.Carson right guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 0 – SEA 6
  • Q1 06:38 FG KC (6:38) 7-H.Butker 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. KC 3 – SEA 7
  • Q2 11:25 TD KC (11:25) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 26-Dam. Williams for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 9 – SEA 7
  • Q2 05:30 TD SEA (5:30) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 81-N.Vannett for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN [49-D.Sorensen]. KC 10 – SEA 13
  • Q3 09:30 FG SEA (9:30) 11-S.Janikowski 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson. KC 10 – SEA 17
  • Q3 05:26 TD KC (5:26) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 30-C.West for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 16 – SEA 17
  • Q3 00:51 TD SEA (:51) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 89-D.Baldwin for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 17 – SEA 23
  • Q4 10:32 FG KC (10:32) 7-H.Butker 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. KC 20 – SEA 24
  • Q4 07:36 TD SEA (7:36) 53-J.Hunt reported in as eligible. 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 84-E.Dickson for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 20 – SEA 30
  • Q4 04:43 TD KC (4:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 11-D.Robinson for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-D.Jordan]. KC 26 – SEA 31
  • Q4 02:33 TD SEA (2:33) (Shotgun) 32-C.Carson left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. KC 28 – SEA 37
  • Q4 01:23 FG KC (1:23) 7-H.Butker 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. KC 31 – SEA 38

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 KC 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.07 EP
    p(convert) 66%

    (14:10) 2-D.Colquitt punts 48 yards to SEA 19, Center-41-J.Winchester. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 23 for 4 yards (41-J.Winchester). FUMBLES (41-J.Winchester), recovered by SEA-37-T.Flowers at SEA 22. 37-T.Flowers to SEA 22 for no gain (56-B.Niemann).

  • Q1 KC 4th & 10 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 61%

    (6:38) 7-H.Butker 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 10 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 92%

    (1:52) 11-S.Janikowski 36 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.49 EP
    p(convert) 74%

    (9:50) 4-M.Dickson punts 46 yards to KC 20, Center-69-T.Ott, out of bounds.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.15 EP
    p(convert) 76%

    (3:19) 2-D.Colquitt punts 57 yards to SEA 9, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-44-D.O'Daniel.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 4 at the 39
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.92 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 53%

    (:43) 4-M.Dickson punts 26 yards to KC 13, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by SEA-38-T.Madden.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 6 at the 10
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 96%

    (9:30) 11-S.Janikowski 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 10 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (:30) 2-D.Colquitt punts 39 yards to SEA 21, Center-41-J.Winchester. 16-T.Lockett ran ob at SEA 31 for 10 yards (30-C.West).

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 3 at the 62
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP
    p(convert) 57%

    (14:21) 4-M.Dickson punts 32 yards to KC 30, Center-69-T.Ott, out of bounds.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 10 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 96%

    (10:32) 7-H.Butker 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 1 at the 45
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 73% p(FG) 37%

    (5:37) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles right end ran ob at SEA 23 for 22 yards (26-LA.Griffin).

  • Q4 KC 4th & 6 at the 15 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 94%

    (1:23) 7-H.Butker 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.