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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 10 at the 10

Kansas City Chiefs 17 – Seattle Seahawks 24

What Actually Happened

(10:32) 7-H.Butker 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.66 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.67 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 10, worth -0.27 EP
KICK +1.62 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model