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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 6 at the 15

Kansas City Chiefs 28 – Seattle Seahawks 38

What Actually Happened

(1:23) 7-H.Butker 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.61 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +4.40 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 15, worth -0.34 EP
KICK +2.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.36 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25, worth -0.64 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model