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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 2 at the 67

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(14:10) 2-D.Colquitt punts 48 yards to SEA 19, Center-41-J.Winchester. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 23 for 4 yards (41-J.Winchester). FUMBLES (41-J.Winchester), recovered by SEA-37-T.Flowers at SEA 22. 37-T.Flowers to SEA 22 for no gain (56-B.Niemann).

The Three Options

GO -0.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.34 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 67, worth -4.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.61 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 25, worth -1.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.07 EP