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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 66

Seattle Seahawks 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

What Actually Happened

(9:50) 4-M.Dickson punts 46 yards to KC 20, Center-69-T.Ott, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.95 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 66, worth -3.56 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.99 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 24, worth -0.99 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.49 EP