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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 66

Kansas City Chiefs 10 – Seattle Seahawks 14

What Actually Happened

(3:19) 2-D.Colquitt punts 57 yards to SEA 9, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-44-D.O'Daniel.

The Three Options

GO +0.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.39 EP
  • 24% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 66, worth -3.65 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.99 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 24, worth -0.99 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.15 EP