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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 6 at the 10

Seattle Seahawks 14 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

What Actually Happened

(9:30) 11-S.Janikowski 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +2.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +6.01 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 10, worth +0.17 EP
KICK +2.03 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP