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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 3 at the 62

Seattle Seahawks 24 – Kansas City Chiefs 17

What Actually Happened

(14:21) 4-M.Dickson punts 32 yards to KC 30, Center-69-T.Ott, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.07 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 62, worth -3.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 21, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP