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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 10 at the 18

Seattle Seahawks 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 3

What Actually Happened

(1:52) 11-S.Janikowski 36 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +1.44 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.56 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 18, worth -0.46 EP
KICK +1.99 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.26 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 28, worth -1.04 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model