Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- QB edge to ATL: Taylor Heinicke (CAR) -0.041 vs Matt Ryan (ATL) +0.196 EPA/dropback (CAR starting Taylor Heinicke in place of Cam Newton)
- CAR offense: +0.083 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
- CAR defense: +0.099 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
- ATL offense: +0.040 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)
- ATL defense: +0.068 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 16
ATL
CAR
Pulled fresh for 2018 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 14 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 07:05 TD CAR (7:05) 6-T.Heinicke pass short left to 80-I.Thomas for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 0 – CAR 6
- Q1 00:44 TD ATL (:44) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 11-J.Jones for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 6 – CAR 7
- Q2 07:46 FG CAR (7:46) 4-C.Catanzaro 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy. ATL 7 – CAR 10
- Q2 05:35 FG ATL (5:35) 3-M.Bryant 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Condo, Holder-5-M.Bosher. ATL 10 – CAR 10
- Q3 15:00 TD ATL (15:00) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep left to 18-C.Ridley for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN [97-M.Addison]. ATL 16 – CAR 10
- Q3 04:45 TD ATL (4:45) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep left to 12-M.Sanu for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 23 – CAR 10
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q2 CAR 4th & 6 at the 85Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 47%
(14:56) 5-M.Palardy punts 56 yards to ATL 29, Center-44-J.Jansen. 14-J.Hardy to ATL 38 for 9 yards (53-B.Jacobs).
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Q2 ATL 4th & 3 at the 55Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EPp(convert) 54%
(13:23) 5-M.Bosher punts 49 yards to CAR 6, Center-46-J.Condo, fair catch by 23-K.Barner.
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Q2 CAR 4th & 4 at the 32Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EPp(convert) 47% p(FG) 71%
(7:46) 4-C.Catanzaro 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.
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Q2 ATL 4th & 2 at the 20Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EPp(convert) 57% p(FG) 90%
(5:35) 3-M.Bryant 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Condo, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
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Q2 ATL 4th & 1 at the 83Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 74%
(:35) 5-M.Bosher punts 46 yards to CAR 37, Center-46-J.Condo, fair catch by 23-K.Barner.
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Q3 CAR 4th & 12 at the 65Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33%
(13:44) 5-M.Palardy punts 40 yards to ATL 25, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 14-J.Hardy. PENALTY on ATL-34-B.Poole, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 25.
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Q3 ATL 4th & 6 at the 71Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45%
(12:13) 5-M.Bosher punts 54 yards to CAR 17, Center-46-J.Condo. 23-K.Barner to CAR 20 for 3 yards (28-J.Bethel).
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Q3 CAR 4th & 8 at the 47Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37% p(FG) 33%
(8:50) 5-M.Palardy punts 32 yards to ATL 15, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 14-J.Hardy.
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Q4 ATL 4th & 4 at the 69Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 51%
(13:37) 5-M.Bosher punts 49 yards to CAR 20, Center-46-J.Condo. 23-K.Barner to CAR 33 for 13 yards (36-K.Ishmael; 29-J.Richards).
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Q4 CAR 4th & 1 at the 6Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 66% p(FG) 98%
(8:36) (Shotgun) 6-T.Heinicke pass incomplete short left to 10-C.Samuel (21-D.Trufant).
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Q4 CAR 4th & 10 at the 30Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.38 EPp(convert) 32% p(FG) 75%
(6:42) (Shotgun) 6-T.Heinicke sacked at ATL 41 for -11 yards (52-B.Irvin).
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Q4 ATL 4th & 3 at the 52 late-gameChose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EPp(convert) 54% p(FG) 22%
(4:26) 5-M.Bosher punts 37 yards to CAR 15, Center-46-J.Condo, fair catch by 23-K.Barner.