4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 3 at the 55

Atlanta Falcons 7 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(13:23) 5-M.Bosher punts 49 yards to CAR 6, Center-46-J.Condo, fair catch by 23-K.Barner.

The Three Options

GO -0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.50 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 55, worth -3.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.93 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EP