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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 8 at the 47

Carolina Panthers 10 – Atlanta Falcons 17

What Actually Happened

(8:50) 5-M.Palardy punts 32 yards to ATL 15, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 14-J.Hardy.

The Three Options

GO -0.31 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.47 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 47, worth -2.57 EP
KICK -1.14 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 13, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model