4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 12 at the 65

Carolina Panthers 10 – Atlanta Falcons 17

What Actually Happened

(13:44) 5-M.Palardy punts 40 yards to ATL 25, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 14-J.Hardy. PENALTY on ATL-34-B.Poole, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 25.

The Three Options

GO -1.58 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.83 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 65, worth -3.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 23, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model