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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 1 at the 83

Atlanta Falcons 10 – Carolina Panthers 10

What Actually Happened

(:35) 5-M.Bosher punts 46 yards to CAR 37, Center-46-J.Condo, fair catch by 23-K.Barner.

The Three Options

GO -0.87 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.19 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 83, worth -3.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -1.01 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 41, worth -1.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model