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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 2 at the 20

Atlanta Falcons 7 – Carolina Panthers 10

What Actually Happened

(5:35) 3-M.Bryant 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Condo, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +2.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.60 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 20, worth -0.66 EP
KICK +1.60 EP
What Happened
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.44 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EP