Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 6 at the 85

Carolina Panthers 7 – Atlanta Falcons 7

(14:56) 5-M.Palardy punts 56 yards to ATL 29, Center-44-J.Jansen. 14-J.Hardy to ATL 38 for 9 yards (53-B.Jacobs).

The Three Options

GO -2.09 EP

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.94 EP
53% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 85, worth -4.79 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model