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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 4 at the 32

Carolina Panthers 7 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(7:46) 4-C.Catanzaro 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +1.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.33 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 32, worth -1.54 EP
KICK +0.61 EP
What Happened
  • 71% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 42, worth -2.06 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP