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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 3 at the 52

Atlanta Falcons 24 – Carolina Panthers 10

What Actually Happened

(4:26) 5-M.Bosher punts 37 yards to CAR 15, Center-46-J.Condo, fair catch by 23-K.Barner.

The Three Options

GO +0.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.22 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 52, worth -2.14 EP
KICK -1.14 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.09 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP