4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
LA Away

Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
@
CHI Home

Chicago Bears

HC Matt Nagy
Sunday 2018-12-09 · 20:20 Soldier Field, Chicago US 🥶 Cold Spread -3.0 O/U 50.5

Win Probability

LA
52.8%
CHI
47.2%
🥶 Cold

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LA offense: +0.187 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • Jared Goff (LA): +0.282 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • CHI defense: -0.113 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • CHI offense: +0.040 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
  • LA defense: +0.060 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (21st in the league)

Predicted Final Score

LA 25
–
CHI 24
Projected margin: LA by 1 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

LA

Malcolm Brown RB Out Shoulder

CHI

Deon Bush S Doubtful Hamstring
Eddie Jackson S Questionable Shin
Bilal Nichols DT Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LA 6
–
CHI 15

Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 28 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:16 FG LA (9:16) 4-G.Zuerlein 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. LA 3 – CHI 0
  • Q1 02:53 FG CHI (2:53) 1-C.Parkey 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. LA 3 – CHI 3
  • Q2 09:28 FG CHI (9:28) 1-C.Parkey 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. LA 3 – CHI 6
  • Q2 04:17 FG LA (4:17) 4-G.Zuerlein 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. LA 6 – CHI 6
  • Q3 14:18 SAF CHI (14:18) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff sacked in End Zone for -8 yards, SAFETY (91-E.Goldman). LA 6 – CHI 8
  • Q3 10:01 TD CHI (10:01) (Shotgun) 79-B.Sowell reported in as eligible. 10-M.Trubisky pass short right to 79-B.Sowell for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 6 – CHI 14

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LA 4th & 4 at the 9
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 97%

    (9:16) 4-G.Zuerlein 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 15 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 90%

    (2:53) 1-C.Parkey 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 2 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.14 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (14:56) 6-J.Hekker punts 29 yards to CHI 26, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 5 at the 45
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 40%

    (11:53) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-48-P.Scales, Touchback.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 13 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 95%

    (9:28) 1-C.Parkey 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (8:18) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker pass short right to 81-G.Everett to LA 34 for 6 yards (30-B.Cunningham). Los Angeles Rams challenged the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker pass short right to 81-G.Everett to LA 35 for 7 yards (30-B.Cunningham).

  • Q2 LA 4th & 10 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 73%

    (4:17) 4-G.Zuerlein 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 1 at the 54
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.68 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (1:45) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 40 yards to LA 14, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 19-J.Natson.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 10 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (1:03) 6-J.Hekker punts 55 yards to CHI 17, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 29-T.Cohen pushed ob at CHI 39 for 22 yards (6-J.Hekker).

  • Q3 LA 4th & 2 at the 74
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP
    p(convert) 64%

    (7:58) 6-J.Hekker punts 62 yards to CHI 12, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-37-S.Shields.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 4 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (:44) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 57 yards to LA 5, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-15-J.Bellamy.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 15 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 88%

    (10:16) 4-G.Zuerlein 40 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 11 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (6:51) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 37 yards to LA 18, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 19-J.Natson.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 4 at the 62 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (4:34) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff sacked at LA 26 for -12 yards (96-A.Hicks).

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 4 at the 20 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 90%

    (2:50) 1-C.Parkey 38 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 10 at the 56 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (2:20) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep left intended for 17-R.Woods INTERCEPTED by 20-P.Amukamara at CHI 39. 20-P.Amukamara to CHI 48 for 9 yards.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 10 at the 52 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 24%

    (:35) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 50 yards to LA 2, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-36-D.Houston-Carson.