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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 10 at the 56

Los Angeles Rams 6 – Chicago Bears 15

What Actually Happened

(2:20) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep left intended for 17-R.Woods INTERCEPTED by 20-P.Amukamara at CHI 39. 20-P.Amukamara to CHI 48 for 9 yards.

The Three Options

GO +0.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.47 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 56, worth -0.71 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.19 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 17, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model