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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 5 at the 45

Chicago Bears 3 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(11:53) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-48-P.Scales, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.48 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 45, worth -1.89 EP
KICK -0.49 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.38 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 12, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP