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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 15 at the 21

Chicago Bears 0 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(2:53) 1-C.Parkey 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +1.04 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.72 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -0.50 EP
KICK +1.91 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 31, worth -1.15 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model