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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 10 at the 32

Los Angeles Rams 3 – Chicago Bears 6

What Actually Happened

(4:17) 4-G.Zuerlein 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +0.24 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.19 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 32, worth -1.63 EP
KICK +0.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 42, worth -2.11 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model