4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 15 at the 22

Los Angeles Rams 6 – Chicago Bears 15

What Actually Happened

(10:16) 4-G.Zuerlein 40 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +0.24 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.20 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 22, worth -1.44 EP
KICK +0.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.32 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 32, worth -2.00 EP
PUNT -0.86 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model