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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 2 at the 55

Los Angeles Rams 3 – Chicago Bears 3

What Actually Happened

(14:56) 6-J.Hekker punts 29 yards to CHI 26, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.12 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 55, worth -3.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -1.07 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 16, worth -1.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.14 EP