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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 2 at the 74

Los Angeles Rams 6 – Chicago Bears 15

What Actually Happened

(7:58) 6-J.Hekker punts 62 yards to CHI 12, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-37-S.Shields.

The Three Options

GO -1.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +0.88 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 74, worth -4.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.58 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 32, worth -1.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP