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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 11 at the 55

Chicago Bears 15 – Los Angeles Rams 6

What Actually Happened

(6:51) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 37 yards to LA 18, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 19-J.Natson.

The Three Options

GO -0.80 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.79 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 55, worth -2.55 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 16, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model