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Cincinnati Bengals

HC Marvin Lewis
@
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Los Angeles Chargers

HC Anthony Lynn
Sunday 2018-12-09 · 16:05 StubHub Center, Carson US ☀️ Clear Spread 17.0 O/U 48.5

Win Probability

CIN
14.0%
LAC
86.0%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to LAC: Philip Rivers (LAC) +0.346 vs Jeff Driskel (CIN) -0.108 EPA/dropback
  • LAC offense: +0.212 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • CIN offense: -0.065 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • CIN defense: +0.163 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • LAC defense: -0.088 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CIN 17
–
LAC 32
Projected margin: LAC by 15 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

CIN

Vontaze Burfict LB Out Concussion
Cordy Glenn T Out Back
Dre Kirkpatrick CB Out Ankle
Tony McRae CB Out Concussion
Josh Malone WR Questionable Hamstring

LAC

Melvin Gordon RB Out Knee
Trevor Williams CB Out Knee
Sean Culkin TE Doubtful Back
Brandon Mebane DT Doubtful Not Injury Related

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CIN 21
–
LAC 26

Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:46 TD LAC (11:46) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short right to 13-K.Allen for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 0 – LAC 6
  • Q1 06:28 FG CIN (6:28) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Bullock 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. CIN 3 – LAC 7
  • Q2 14:56 TD LAC (14:56) 30-A.Ekeler up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 3 – LAC 13
  • Q2 05:05 FG CIN (5:05) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Bullock 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. CIN 6 – LAC 14
  • Q2 00:25 TD CIN (:25) (Shotgun) 6-J.Driskel pass short middle to 15-J.Ross for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 12 – LAC 14
  • Q2 00:00 FG LAC (:00) (Field Goal formation) 4-M.Badgley 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-D.Jones. CIN 12 – LAC 17
  • Q3 07:42 FG LAC (7:42) (Field Goal formation) 4-M.Badgley 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-D.Jones. CIN 12 – LAC 20
  • Q4 12:17 FG CIN (12:17) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Bullock 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. CIN 15 – LAC 20
  • Q4 07:50 FG LAC (7:50) (Field Goal formation) 4-M.Badgley 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-D.Jones. CIN 15 – LAC 23
  • Q4 01:54 TD CIN (1:54) 66-T.Hopkins and 94-S.Hubbard reported in as eligible. 28-J.Mixon up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 21 – LAC 23
  • Q4 00:54 FG LAC (:54) 4-M.Badgley 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-D.Jones. CIN 21 – LAC 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 3 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 79%

    (6:28) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Bullock 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 7 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (12:16) 10-K.Huber punts 47 yards to LAC 7, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 20-D.King.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 12 at the 95
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (10:32) 5-D.Jones punts 41 yards to LAC 46, Center-47-M.Windt, downed by LAC-23-R.Jenkins.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 98%

    (5:05) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Bullock 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 15 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (3:50) 5-D.Jones punts 56 yards to CIN 32, Center-47-M.Windt. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 46 for 14 yards (48-N.Dzubnar; 51-K.Emanuel).

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 11 at the 94
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (1:44) 5-D.Jones punts 38 yards to LAC 44, Center-47-M.Windt. 12-A.Erickson to LAC 35 for 9 yards (51-K.Emanuel; 29-J.Richards). LAC-51-K.Emanuel was injured during the play.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 1 at the 65
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69%

    (12:51) 28-J.Mixon up the middle to CIN 35 for no gain (43-M.Davis, 37-J.Addae).

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 1 at the 26
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72% p(FG) 84%

    (11:09) 30-A.Ekeler up the middle to CIN 24 for 2 yards (59-N.Vigil; 90-M.Johnson). CIN-99-A.Billings was injured during the play.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 10 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 95%

    (7:42) (Field Goal formation) 4-M.Badgley 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-D.Jones.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 12 at the 39
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 57%

    (4:07) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 35 yards to LAC 4, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-12-A.Erickson.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 2 at the 77
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.87 EP
    p(convert) 67%

    (1:10) 5-D.Jones punts 38 yards to CIN 39, Center-47-M.Windt, out of bounds.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 5 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 81%

    (12:17) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Bullock 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 3 at the 14
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 95%

    (7:50) (Field Goal formation) 4-M.Badgley 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-D.Jones.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 3 at the 27 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 82%

    (:54) 4-M.Badgley 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-D.Jones.