Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 12 at the 95

Los Angeles Chargers 14 – Cincinnati Bengals 3

(10:32) 5-D.Jones punts 41 yards to LAC 46, Center-47-M.Windt, downed by LAC-23-R.Jenkins.

The Three Options

GO -3.20 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.76 EP
60% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 95, worth -5.86 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (112 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model