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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 5 at the 28

Cincinnati Bengals 12 – Los Angeles Chargers 20

What Actually Happened

(12:17) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Bullock 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +0.91 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.31 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 28, worth -1.21 EP
KICK +1.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 38, worth -2.06 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model