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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 3 at the 14

Los Angeles Chargers 20 – Cincinnati Bengals 15

What Actually Happened

(7:50) (Field Goal formation) 4-M.Badgley 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +2.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.00 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 14, worth -0.21 EP
KICK +1.88 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24, worth -0.94 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP