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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 26

Los Angeles Chargers 17 – Cincinnati Bengals 12

What Actually Happened

(11:09) 30-A.Ekeler up the middle to CIN 24 for 2 yards (59-N.Vigil; 90-M.Johnson). CIN-99-A.Billings was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +2.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.44 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26, worth -0.87 EP
KICK +1.45 EP
  • 83% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 36, worth -1.82 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model