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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 3 at the 29

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(6:28) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Bullock 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +1.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.15 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 29, worth -1.60 EP
KICK +0.80 EP
What Happened
  • 78% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 39, worth -2.33 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model