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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 1 at the 65

Cincinnati Bengals 12 – Los Angeles Chargers 17

What Actually Happened

(12:51) 28-J.Mixon up the middle to CIN 35 for no gain (43-M.Davis, 37-J.Addae).

The Three Options

GO +0.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.90 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 65, worth -3.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.18 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 23, worth -1.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model