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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 10 at the 13

Los Angeles Chargers 17 – Cincinnati Bengals 12

What Actually Happened

(7:42) (Field Goal formation) 4-M.Badgley 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +2.04 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.23 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 13, worth -0.03 EP
KICK +2.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 23, worth -0.66 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model