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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 5 at the 5

Cincinnati Bengals 3 – Los Angeles Chargers 14

What Actually Happened

(5:05) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Bullock 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +2.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.78 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 5, worth -0.06 EP
KICK +1.78 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.68 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model