LA @ DET — 4th & Data

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Detroit Lions

4-8 HC Matt Patricia

Sunday 2018-12-02 · 13:00 ET Ford Field, Detroit US 🏟 Dome Spread -10.5 O/U 54.0

Win Probability

64.8%

DET

35.2%

🏟 Dome

Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

LA offense: +0.238 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
DET offense: +0.064 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
DET defense: +0.171 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
Jared Goff (LA): +0.276 EPA/dropback in prior starts
Indoors — weather neutralised
LA defense: +0.097 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
LA on 3 more days rest than DET

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

LA 29 22–36

–

DET 23 16–30

Projected margin: LA by 6 Projected total: 52

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 13

LA

No players on the report.

DET

Nick Bellore RB Out Ankle

Kerryon Johnson RB Out Knee

Brandon Powell WR Out Calf

Michael Roberts TE Doubtful Shoulder

Trevor Bates LB Questionable Ankle

Bruce Ellington WR Questionable Back

Jalen Reeves-Maybin LB Questionable Neck

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LA 30

–

DET 16

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 03:20 FG LA (3:20) 4-G.Zuerlein 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. LA 3 – DET 0
Q2 12:26 FG DET (12:26) 5-M.Prater 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. LA 3 – DET 3
Q2 02:33 TD LA (2:33) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 17-R.Woods for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 9 – DET 3
Q2 00:48 FG LA (:48) 4-G.Zuerlein 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. LA 13 – DET 3
Q3 08:01 FG DET (8:01) 5-M.Prater 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. LA 13 – DET 6
Q3 05:51 FG LA (5:51) 4-G.Zuerlein 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. LA 16 – DET 6
Q3 03:08 TD DET (3:08) 68-T.Decker reported in as eligible. 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 68-T.Decker for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 16 – DET 12
Q4 06:58 TD LA (6:58) (No Huddle) 30-T.Gurley right end for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 22 – DET 13
Q4 02:57 FG DET (2:57) 5-M.Prater 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. LA 23 – DET 16
Q4 02:00 TD LA (2:00) 30-T.Gurley right tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 29 – DET 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 LA 4th & 3 at the 47

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.10 EP

p(convert) 58% p(FG) 39%

(12:08) 6-J.Hekker punts 43 yards to DET 4, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-36-D.Hatfield. LA-37-S.Shields was injured during the play.
See the full breakdown →
Q1 DET 4th & 2 at the 67

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP

p(convert) 63%

(8:08) 6-S.Martin punts 39 yards to LA 28, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 19-J.Natson to LA 30 for 2 yards (26-D.Shead). PENALTY on LA-37-S.Shields, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at LA 30.
See the full breakdown →
Q1 LA 4th & 4 at the 6

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.36 EP

p(convert) 48% p(FG) 98%

(3:20) 4-G.Zuerlein 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 DET 4th & 5 at the 10

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 40% p(FG) 97%

(12:26) 5-M.Prater 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 DET 4th & 8 at the 73

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 41%

(8:45) 6-S.Martin punts 44 yards to LA 29, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 19-J.Natson.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 DET 4th & 17 at the 82

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 30%

(1:46) 6-S.Martin punts 58 yards to LA 24, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 19-J.Natson to LA 32 for 8 yards (35-M.Killebrew).
See the full breakdown →
Q2 LA 4th & 10 at the 29

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 36% p(FG) 80%

(:48) 4-G.Zuerlein 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 DET 4th & 7 at the 61

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 41%

(:20) 6-S.Martin punts 53 yards to LA 8, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, downed by DET-47-T.Walker.
See the full breakdown →
Q3 DET 4th & 7 at the 72

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 43%

(14:15) 6-S.Martin punts 54 yards to LA 18, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 19-J.Natson to LA 26 for 8 yards (47-T.Walker).
See the full breakdown →
Q3 DET 4th & 11 at the 11

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 28% p(FG) 96%

(8:01) 5-M.Prater 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.
See the full breakdown →
Q3 LA 4th & 2 at the 30

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.09 EP

p(convert) 62% p(FG) 78%

(5:51) 4-G.Zuerlein 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.
See the full breakdown →
Q4 DET 4th & 8 at the 54

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 38%

(10:22) 6-S.Martin punts 38 yards to LA 16, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, downed by DET-57-E.Harold.
See the full breakdown →
Q4 LA 4th & 10 at the 84

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 42%

(9:57) 6-J.Hekker punts 53 yards to DET 31, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 12-B.Ellington.
See the full breakdown →
Q4 DET 4th & 12 at the 17 late-game

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 28% p(FG) 93%

(2:57) 5-M.Prater 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.
See the full breakdown →

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