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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 2 at the 67

Detroit Lions 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(8:08) 6-S.Martin punts 39 yards to LA 28, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 19-J.Natson to LA 30 for 2 yards (26-D.Shead). PENALTY on LA-37-S.Shields, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at LA 30.

The Three Options

GO -0.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.00 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 67, worth -3.63 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 25, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP