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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 7 at the 61

Detroit Lions 3 – Los Angeles Rams 13

What Actually Happened

(:20) 6-S.Martin punts 53 yards to LA 8, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, downed by DET-47-T.Walker.

The Three Options

GO -0.81 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +0.93 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 61, worth -2.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 20, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model