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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 4 at the 6

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(3:20) 4-G.Zuerlein 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +2.69 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.15 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 6, worth -0.46 EP
KICK +1.33 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.39 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21, worth -1.26 EP
PUNT -0.64 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.36 EP