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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 10 at the 29

Los Angeles Rams 10 – Detroit Lions 3

What Actually Happened

(:48) 4-G.Zuerlein 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.19 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.35 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 29, worth -0.56 EP
KICK +1.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.53 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 39, worth -1.12 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model