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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 17 at the 82

Detroit Lions 3 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(1:46) 6-S.Martin punts 58 yards to LA 24, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 19-J.Natson to LA 32 for 8 yards (35-M.Killebrew).

The Three Options

GO -2.95 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.95 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 82, worth -4.63 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -2.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 40, worth -2.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model