4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 12 at the 17

Detroit Lions 13 – Los Angeles Rams 23

What Actually Happened

(2:57) 5-M.Prater 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +1.24 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.55 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 17, worth -0.44 EP
KICK +1.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 27, worth -0.94 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model